An update on the state of covid-19 in the 50 US states
How are we doing with covid-19? Is the situation improving or worsening? How is it for different parts of the USA? How do we assess the situation? The best measures are the number of covid-19 confirmed cases, covid-19 induced deaths, and testing statistics. Each measure has weaknesses. Many people think that confirmed cases vastly underestimate the true spread of the disease - because of limits in testing. However, deaths could be also both overcounted and undercounted . Some analysts largely ignore the number of confirmed cases and focus solely on the number of deaths. Many such analysts estimate true spread of infection assuming a fixed death rate, which is not easy to determine. Rather small differences in the death rate could make a huge difference in the estimated spread of disease. Examples here and here . While different methods have their merits, policy decisions should be based on all available information - regardless of the shortcomings of each measure. In additi...