Recent state of covid-19 in the 50 US states and DC

I made the charts below by processing the raw data taken from the COVID tracking project supplemented with population data taken from wikipedia.

Here is a chart of daily covid-19 confirmed cases accounting for population size and averaged across last 7 days for the 50 states and District of Columbia. DC along with Rhode Island, Nebraska, and Massachusetts report the most number of cases per million. Montana, Hawaii, and Alaska report the fewest cases per million.

The number of deaths accounting for population size and averaged across last 7 days is shown above - in the order ranked by the daily cases. There is a correlation between the number of cases and deaths, but this is not perfect. There could be several possible reasons for the discrepancy. (1) Death is a lagging indicator - people don't die instantly after contracting covid-19. If the number of cases increased recently, increase in deaths will become evident only after about a week. (2) The number of cases may be vastly underestimated in one state as compared to another. For example, one state may have tested many more people than another state. (3) There may be demographic differences - such as one state having older or sicker population. However, the difference from state to state within the USA should be pretty small. (4) Luck.

Next, a chart of daily tests also accounting for population and averaged across last 7 days - also in the order ranked by the daily cases. While some states are testing more than others, the difference for most of the states is fairly small. States like Rhode Island and North Dakota are doing more while Mississippi, Maine, and Idaho are doing less.

More differences can be seen with % positive (i.e. how many people test as positive out of all people tested) - also in the order ranked by the daily cases. States with many cases generally show high % positive rate. Some states with many cases AND relatively fewer test show higher % positive rate (e.g. New Jersey and Mississippi). High positive rate probably means that there is a severe shortage in testing and that the actual number of new cases is much higher.

Given that the guidelines in testing with tests given only to people with symptoms (~30%), I suspect that 70% of the people with the covid-19 virus are not tested. Therefore, I expect that the actual number of covid-19 infection is AT LEAST 3 times the confirmed count. If only half of the people with symptoms are tested, we should expect more than 6.67 times the confirmed count. With a confirmed case of over 1.3 million, this means 3.9 million or 8.7 million REAL cases. With the US population of 328 million, this could mean 2.7% of the population (using 8.7 million using 6.7x confirmed) - BTW nowhere near the minimum of 70% total infected for herd immunity.

FWIW, covid-19-projections.com estimates over 10 million cases with 3% total infected in the USA using a different methodology - more than me.

Next, comments on the 50 states plus DC with charts of daily deaths, daily cases, current state of hospitalization at a given date, daily tests, and dailytest positive rates. Reopen date was taken from covid-19-projections.com. The data is again from the COVID tracking project.

Alabama (pop. 4.9 million) - estimated reopen date: May 11

Alabama is in the middle of the pack as far as cases and deaths are concerned. The cases and deaths have never really stopped increasing. Test positive rate is around 5% - not bad. Current infection rate (R) seems close to 1 - maybe above 1, and it should only get worse with partial opening scheduled May 11.

Alaska (pop. 0.7 million) - estimated reopen date: Apr 24

Everything here looks pretty good. The numbers of cases and deaths were never high, and all signs show that the disease may be being eliminated. Low population density helps, and contact tracing could be manageable.

Arizona (pop. 7.3 million) - estimated reopen date: May 11

Maybe a hint of disease spread plateau. Test positive rate of 5% is okay. Reopening should mean things should get worse again.

Arkansas (pop. 3.0 million) - estimated reopen date: May 11

Distancing measures appeared to be definitely helping, and the disease never became truly widespread. Whether things remain under control with reopening is questionable IMHO.

California (pop. 39.5 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Distancing measures showed only limited success - with R remaining pretty close to 1. I call this being in a limbo. Current test positive rate of 5% is a silver lining.

Colorado (pop. 5.8 million) - estimated reopen date: May 15

Distancing measures appears to be helpful, but you cannot say things are under control. Test positive rate of 15% is a problem. Early reopen date seems too optimistic.

Connecticutt (pop. 3.6 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Distancing measures appears to be helpful, but the situation was pretty dire and is still pretty bad. Test positive rate of 15% is a problem. FWIW covid-19-projections.com estimates that 11% of the population has been infected.

Delaware (pop. 1.0 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Distancing measures took longer to lead to a plateau. Awful test positive rate near 13% currently. Far from out of the woods.

District of Columbia (pop. 0.7 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Distancing measures took longer to lead to a plateau. Awful test positive rate. Far from out of the woods. One might think that the White House and the Congress would try to do better in the city where they are located. It's a sad state of affairs. The Congress controls DC's purse strings.

Florida (pop. 21.5 million) - estimated reopen date: May 15

Test positive rate is now under 5%, and case numbers have been dropping for a while now. Death rate has not followed the same trend, however. Florida has a reputation of having many retirees. Spring break crowds did not lead to catastrophic increase in disease spread, which is consistent with the idea that hot outside air is not conducive to covid-19 spread.

Georgia (pop. 10.6 million) - estimated reopen date: Apr 27

Call Georgia the canary in a coal mine. Distancing measures never showed great effectiveness, and they have started reopening process earlier than all other states. Test positive rate of 7% is neither awful nor great.

Hawaii (pop. 1.4 million) - estimated reopen date: none

They are being very careful. The number of tests is small but sufficient for their current situation. This could change in a hurry with a flood of vacationers.

Idaho (pop. 1.8 million) - estimated reopen date: May 16

Not sure what is going on with their positive rate - they really should be able to do better than 7%. Being in the boondocks should be helpful in avoiding infection.

Illinois (pop. 12.7 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Barely a hint of plateau. Really problematic despite no immediate plans of reopening. One positive - the number of tests and test positive rate are trending in the right direction.

Indiana (pop. 6.7 million) - estimated reopen date: May 11

Distancing measures appears to be helpful, but you cannot say things are under control. Test positive rate of 13% is a problem. Premature reopening IMHO.

Iowa (pop. 3.2 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

There was hardly any sign of number of new cases and deaths becoming smaller. It should only get worse.

Kansas (pop. 2.9 million) - estimated reopen date: May 4

Brief decreases in deaths prior to reopening might seem incongruent with the number of confirmed cases, but testing took a while to get going. Test positive rate of 12% is pretty bad.

Kentucky (pop. 4.5 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Data is with a lot of fluctuations - yo yo. I don't know if all the ups and downs reflect the real situation or poor reporting. In any case, this is not a good situation.

Louisiana (pop. 4.6 million) - estimated reopen date: May 16

All recent trends are in the right direction - there is a weird data point with testing. Current positive rate is a shade above 5%. Reopening soon - risky.

Maine (pop. 1.3 million) - estimated reopen date: May 18

Not awful. Not great. Not on track to eliminating the spread of disease.

Maryland (pop. 6.0 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Disease spread show a plateau but no appreciate decrease. Positive rate of 25% is awful. Maryland is right next to the DC, the capital city, but the coordination between the state and federal government seems pretty weak.

Michigan (pop. 10.0 million) - estimated reopen date: none

All recent trends look good. Positive rate of 5% is not bad. Michigan was one of the hardest hit states. Now, Michigan is close to average per population in deaths with better future prospects. FWIW covid-19-projections.com estimates 6% total infection.

Minnesota (pop. 5.6 million) - estimated reopen date: May 4

All trends look bad despite increasing testing. Reopening started a week ago. WTF. FWIW covid-19-projections.com estimates 2% total infection, so they have a long way to go before herd immunity.

Mississippi (pop. 3.0 million) - estimated reopen date: May 7

All trends look uniformly bad, and I have no idea what is happening with their testing recently. Reopening started. Are they giving up on life?

Missouri (pop. 6.1 million) - estimated reopen date: May 4

Trends did not substantially improve before reopening. Test positive rate of 5% is okay.

Montana (pop. 1.1 million) - estimated reopen date: May 4

Montana is one of three states without much damage along with Alaska and Hawaii. Being in the middle of nowhere surrounded by entirely sparsely populated states helps. Things never spiraled out of control, and their current testing rate seems sufficient. They are in a good shape.

Nebraska (pop. 1.9 million) - estimated reopen date: May 4

Being in the middle of nowhere does not guarantee safety. I don't know how they managed to screw things up so that their test positive rate is still above 20%. Does anyone think it will get better here? The death rate here could double within a week.

Nevada (pop. 3.1 million) - estimated reopen date: May 9

Things were getting better - very slowly. It should get worse pretty soon. Test positive rate is currently around 5%.

New Hampshire (pop. 1.4 million) - estimated reopen date: May 18

It seems that their distancing measures were not effective in getting R below 1. Are they blaming massholes? In any case, this is one of the more depressing trendlines of all 50 states.

New Jersey (pop. 8.9 million) - estimated reopen date: none

The case rate and hospitalization rate has been decreasing for a while. Death rate understandably has been lagging but could follow slowly. Test positive rate is still awful. FWIW, covid-19-projections.com estimates 14% total infection rate, highest of all 50 states.

New Mexico (pop. 2.1 million) - estimated reopen date: May 16

Aside from a relative low current 5% test positive rate, all trends are poor with no signs of plateau. I suspect that the current R is above 1.

New York (pop. 19.5 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Test positive rate has come down to around 10%. FWIW covid-19-projections.com estimate 13.5% total infection.

North Carolina (pop. 10.5 million) - estimated reopen date: May 23

Deaths and hospitalizations show signs of plateau. Current test positive rate is around 8%.

North Dakota (pop. 0.8 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

Even with partial reopen, their R might still be below 1. Maybe with effective contact tracing, they might be able to keep things under control without further restrictions.

Ohio (pop. 11.7 million) - estimated reopen date: none

This is another case where distancing measures may not have decreased R to a value under 1. Tough situation. Current test positive rate is around 8%.

Oklahoma (pop. 4.0 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

The R value here with partial reopening might be hovering around 1. Considering the number of new cases, their testing rate is considerably higher than the states with comparable number of new cases. Presidential favoritism at work?

Oregon (pop. 4.2 million) - estimated reopen date: none

The most promising signs is the hospitalization numbers. Test positive rate is a not-bad 4%. This is one of the less effected states by most measures.

Pennsylvania (pop. 12.8 million)  - estimated reopen date: none

The recent trends of the number of cases and hospitalization are favorable. Test positive rate is poor. Their death data is messy and difficult to interpret.

Rhode Island (pop. 1.1 million)  - estimated reopen date: May 25

Difficult to interpret with a lot of fluctuations. Small but densely populated state.

South Carolina (pop. 5.1 million) - estimated reopen date: May 11

Signs of plateau and even decrease was visible, but early reopening could easily reverse that recent trend.

South Dakota (pop. 0.9 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

Another state showing that it's very easy to squander away the advantages of low population density. The early signs after reopening look bad, and a bigger peak of deaths seems inevitable.

Tennessee (pop. 6.8 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

An interesting case where reopening has not led to disastrous results so far. Strong testing numbers may have helped.

Texas (pop. 29.0 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

Texas has had pretty strong testing numbers for a while now. Since reopening, new cases and deaths have been trending up but not dramatically. Ditto hospitalization.

Utah (pop. 3.2 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

Another state with pretty strong testing numbers for a while. The current R seems to be staying close to 1.

Vermont (pop. 0.6 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Pretty good numbers with pretty good recent trendlines.

Virginia (pop. 8.5 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Another state next to the capital city DC with poor trendlines. Plateau seems possible, but the test positive rate is still awful.

Washington (pop. 7.6 million) - estimated reopen date: none

The first heavily-hit state. Generally good trendlines recently. Current test positive rate around 5%.

West Virginia (pop. 1.8 million) - estimated reopen date: May 4

The covid-19 numbers for West Virginia are pretty good overall. However, there are many extra deaths in West Virginia according to CDC - up to more than double the usual on some weeks - some people blame this on drug abuse.

Wisconsin (pop. 5.8 million) - estimated reopen date: none

Another state with confusing trendlines. Weird hospitalization numbers seemingly with a peak in early April and another peak in May. Test positive rate is 8% and decreasing.

Wyoming (pop. 0.6 million) - estimated reopen date: May 1

Another sparsely populated state. There was a spike of cases around the time of reopening - this may be unrelated to reopening.